Research Publications
Learn more about our work from our recent publications!
For full list of publications, click here.
Novel insights on unraveling dynamics of transmission clusters in outbreaks using phylogeny-based methods
Molecular data analysis is invaluable in understanding the overall behavior of a rapidly spreading virus population when epidemiological surveillance is problematic. It is also particularly beneficial in describing subgroups within the population, often identified as clades within a phylogenetic tree that represent individuals connected via direct transmission or transmission via differing risk factors in viral spread. However, transmission patterns or viral dynamics within these smaller groups should not be expected to exhibit homogeneous behavior over time. As such, standard phylogenetic approaches that identify clusters based on summary statistics would not be expected to capture dynamic clusters of transmission. We, therefore, sought to evaluate the performance of existing and adapted phylogeny-based cluster identification tools on simulated transmission clusters exhibiting dynamic transmission behavior over time. Despite the complementarity of the tools, we provide strong evidence that novel cluster identification methods are needed for reliable detection of epidemiologically linked individuals, particularly those exhibiting changing transmission dynamics during dynamic outbreak scenarios.
In the midst of an outbreak or sustained epidemic, reliable prediction of transmission risks and patterns of spread is critical to inform public health programs. Projections of transmission growth or decline among specific risk groups can aid in optimizing interventions, particularly when resources are limited. Phylogenetic trees have been widely used in the detection of transmission chains and high-risk populations. Moreover, tree topology and the incorporation of population parameters (phylodynamics) can be useful in reconstructing the evolutionary dynamics of an epidemic across space and time among individuals. We now demonstrate the utility of phylodynamic trees for transmission modeling and forecasting, developing a phylogeny-based deep learning system, referred to as DeepDynaForecast. Our approach leverages a primal-dual graph learning structure with shortcut multi-layer aggregation, which is suited for the early identification and prediction of transmission dynamics in emerging high-risk groups. We demonstrate the accuracy of DeepDynaForecast using simulated outbreak data and the utility of the learned model using empirical, large-scale data from the human immunodeficiency virus epidemic in Florida between 2012 and 2020. Our framework is available as open-source software (MIT license) at github.com/lab-smile/DeepDynaForcast.
Machine Learning Prediction and Phyloanatomic Modeling of Viral Neuroadaptive Signatures in the Macaque Model of HIV-Mediated Neuropathology
In human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, virus replication in and adaptation to the central nervous system (CNS) can result in neurocognitive deficits in approximately 25% of patients with unsuppressed viremia. While no single viral mutation can be agreed upon as distinguishing the neuroadapted population, earlier studies have demonstrated that a machine learning (ML) approach could be applied to identify a collection of mutational signatures within the virus envelope glycoprotein (Gp120) predictive of disease. The S[imian]IV-infected macaque is a widely used animal model of HIV neuropathology, allowing in-depth tissue sampling infeasible for human patients. Yet, translational impact of the ML approach within the context of the macaque model has not been tested, much less the capacity for early prediction in other, noninvasive tissues. We applied the previously described ML approach to prediction of SIV-mediated encephalitis (SIVE) using gp120 sequences obtained from the CNS of animals with and without SIVE with 97% accuracy. The presence of SIVE signatures at earlier time points of infection in non-CNS tissues indicated these signatures cannot be used in a clinical setting; however, combined with protein structural mapping and statistical phylogenetic inference, results revealed common denominators associated with these signatures, including 2-acetamido-2-deoxy-beta-d-glucopyranose structural interactions and high rate of alveolar macrophage (AM) infection. AMs were also determined to be the phyloanatomic source of cranial virus in SIVE animals, but not in animals that did not develop SIVE, implicating a role for these cells in the evolution of the signatures identified as predictive of both HIV and SIV neuropathology.
Lessons Learned and Yet-to-Be Learned on the Importance of RNA Structure in SARS-CoV-2 Replication
SARS-CoV-2, the etiological agent responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, is a member of the virus family Coronaviridae, known for relatively extensive (~30-kb) RNA genomes that not only encode for numerous proteins but are also capable of forming elaborate structures. As highlighted in this review, these structures perform critical functions in various steps of the viral life cycle, ultimately impacting pathogenesis and transmissibility. We examine these elements in the context of coronavirus evolutionary history and future directions for curbing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and other potential human coronaviruses. While we focus on structures supported by a variety of biochemical, biophysical, and/or computational methods, we also touch here on recent evidence for novel structures in both protein-coding and noncoding regions of the genome, including an assessment of the potential role for RNA structure in the controversial finding of SARS-CoV-2 integration in “long COVID” patients. This review aims to serve as a consolidation of previous works on coronavirus and more recent investigation of SARS-CoV-2, emphasizing the need for improved understanding of the role of RNA structure in the evolution and adaptation of these human viruses.